rt = ln(Ct / Ct−1), ℓt = ln(min(Lt, Ct) / Ct−1)
P(start = s) ∝ ws, ws = 2−(n−1−s) / (·365),
r̃t = rt − r̄w, ℓ̃t = ℓt − r̄w, r̄w = Σ wt rt / Σ wt Sk = S0 · exp(Σj≤k r̃j)
Sk−1 · emin(ℓ̃k, 0, r̃k) ≤ Dk−1 / (B · LTVliq) ⇒
p̂ = k / N, N = , √(p̂(1 − p̂) / N) =
rt = μ + εt, εt = √ht · zt, zt ~ tν (), ht+1 = ω + α εt2 + β ht
P = Φ((ln(b/S0) − mT) / (σ√T)) + (b/S0)2m/σ² · Φ((ln(b/S0) + mT) / (σ√T)), m = 0 , σ =
C = (1/N) Σi Σsales [ k·b · max(0, S̃T,i − P) + (1 − k)·b · S̃T,i ], S̃T,i = ST,i · S0 / ((1/N) Σj ST,j)